7 of essentially the most ludicrous claims from the Cybercab launch

Tesla’s “We, Robot” event showcased three main products. We have been launched to the Cybercab, Tesla’s totally self-driving autonomous taxi. Elon Musk additionally unveiled the Robovan, which is a Cybercab, solely greater and weirder-looking. And Elon completed the present by bringing in a military of scary Optimus robots that can at some point play board video games together with your children and wipe down your kitchen island.

For a person with rather a lot to say, Elon’s supply was low power, however regardless of the muted presentation, there have been some absolute gems to be discovered. That is as a result of Elon managed to throw in some actually outrageous claims all through the presentation that lasted underneath an hour. Listed below are seven of Elon Musk’s most ridiculous claims through the Cybercab launch.

1 The Optimus robotic would be the largest product ever of any variety

I believe the wheel might need one thing to say about that

Tesla

Let’s begin with probably the most ludicrous claims of all. This one is so massive that it must be quoted precisely. Elon Musk, with a straight face, said the next about his Optimus robotic:

“I believe this would be the largest product ever, of any variety.”

Let’s simply put that into context. There are some severe contenders already for essentially the most important product ever of any variety. Two of the three merchandise showcased on the We, Robotic occasion used wheels, and the wheel certainly needs to be in with a shout, proper? Based on Elon, his robotic that may barely stroll with out trying prefer it’s about to fall over, can be greater than the wheel, a product that has been used for hundreds of years. Positive it would, Elon.

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2 Each one of many eight billion folks of Earth will need an Optimus buddy

Do we actually desire a robotic military of billions?

Tesla

Elon additionally claims that “each one of many eight billion folks of Earth will need an Optimus buddy.” Actually, some could even need two. That is though the Optimus robotic is prone to value $30,000 when constructed at scale. I am certain if you happen to requested somebody at present residing in a warfare zone or affected by famine what they’d most wish to spend $30,000 on, the reply would positively be a daunting humanoid robotic.

There is a quite simple solution to show that Elon’s assertion is not true. I can inform you proper now I do not need one. There isn’t any manner that I wish to personal a humanoid robotic constructed by an organization that may’t even make a workable truck. Having loved the numerous hilarious posts on r/CyberStuck on Reddit, there is no manner that no less than one in every of these Optimus robots is not going to blow up, catch fireplace, or begin telling you to place down your weapons and that you’ve got 20 seconds to conform, just like the ED-209 in RoboCop.

If I do not need an Optimus buddy, which I do not, then that declare that eight billion folks will need one cannot be true; will probably be 7,999,999,999 at most.

3 There’s an 80% chance that digital tremendous intelligence will not be dangerous

60% of the time, it really works each time

Terminator

This was a throwaway remark, nevertheless it’s one which Elon has made earlier than. Based on him, there’s an 80% likelihood digital tremendous intelligence can be a power for good. Sadly, the flip aspect of because of this there is a one in 5 likelihood that AI will grow to be self-aware and launch nukes in opposition to us.

It is unclear the place Elon has pulled these figures from. He could have requested Grok AI to determine it out, so it is nearly actually extremely correct. If what he says is true, then for the love of God, shut down all of the AI chatbots proper now as a result of a one-in-five likelihood of AI destroying us all appears worryingly excessive. By no means inform me the chances.

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4 Anybody will be capable of have any services and products they need

Who’s paying for the facility, Elon?

Tesla

There appears to be lots of people in the meanwhile saying that expertise will usher in an age of unimaginable prosperity. Solely just lately, OpenAI’s Sam Altman, the person behind ChatGPT, claimed in a weblog submit that “sooner or later, everybody’s lives may be higher than anybody’s life is now.” Elon is providing an identical view of the longer term; with Optimus robots doing all the roles for us, it would usher in a brand new daybreak the place “anybody will be capable of have any services and products they need; will probably be an age of abundance.”

The flaw on this plan is that even with robots doing all of the work without cost, services and products nonetheless require uncooked supplies and power, each of which value cash. It is unlikely that robots changing people getting paid peanuts to make your iPhone in a manufacturing facility in China will imply you can purchase the iPhone 19 for $10. It is attention-grabbing that each one the those that appear to be saying that tech will deliver a brand new daybreak of prosperity are additionally those promoting that tech. Perhaps it would change into true — for them, no less than.

5 Your autonomous automobile can be used ten occasions extra typically than your present automobile

The concept is sweet, however the figures do not add up

Tesla

This one is a little bit contentious as a result of, to some extent, the declare has the potential to be true. Nevertheless, the numbers simply do not appear so as to add up. Elon factors out that the typical particular person makes use of their automobile for about 10 hours out of the 168 hours in per week. If a automobile can drive itself, then it might be used as a lot as ten occasions greater than automobiles are at present, making your automobile ten occasions extra priceless.

At first look, this appears so as to add up. In case your automobile can drive itself, then whenever you’re not utilizing it, you may put it to work as a taxi, driving round and taking folks the place they should go, and incomes you some cash whilst you sleep or work. It would not appear unreasonable that your automobile might be used for 100 hours within the week on this manner.

There are just a few points right here, nonetheless. Firstly, if you happen to’ve spent $30,000 on a self-driving automobile, would you like complete strangers driving round in it for 90 hours per week? Even if you happen to do, there’s an issue with demand. You let folks use your automobile as a taxi for 90 hours per week, no drawback. Your neighbor does the identical. So does the neighbor on the opposite aspect. Three homes alone can supply almost 300 hours of rides per week. It would not take lengthy earlier than the out there hours from all of those autonomous automobiles vastly outstrip the demand, that means that your automobile will find yourself sitting idle in your storage in any case.

If in some way demand matches provide, the issues are even worse. If each automobile is used for ten occasions as a lot as it’s at present, then the roads may have ten occasions the quantity of visitors — some utopian future.

6 Uber drivers will grow to be automobile shepherds with flocks of automobiles

If one Uber driver has 20 automobiles, 19 Uber drivers are out of a job

Tesla/Pocket-Lint

In case you’re an Uber driver anxious about shedding your supply of revenue, don’t be concerned, Elon has you coated. He envisions that as we speak’s Uber drivers will grow to be tomorrow’s automobile shepherds. That is proper, Uber drivers sooner or later may have fleets of 10-20 automobiles that they may take care of like a shepherd tends to his flock.

By no means thoughts {that a} fleet of 20 Cybercabs would set you again round $600,000, cash that the typical Uber driver is unlikely to have mendacity round. As soon as once more, it is a difficulty of demand. If an Uber driver as we speak goes from one automobile to a fleet of 20, then they’re doing the work of 19 different Uber drivers, that means the opposite 19 are successfully put out of enterprise. It is not potential for each driver as we speak to run a fleet of 20 automobiles and nonetheless have sufficient demand to make it financially viable.

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7 The Cybercab can be prepared earlier than 2027

Tesla’s observe file says in any other case

Tesla

I did not suppose any declare might be extra unlikely than Elon’s scary robots being the most important product ever, however he managed to high it with an much more unlikely declare. That is proper, Elon mentioned that the Cybercab can be prepared “earlier than 2027.” Let’s check out latest historical past. In 2014, Elon mentioned that the Cybertruck can be prepared in 4-5 years. 2018 got here and went, however no Cybertruck. 2019, once we ought to have been in a position to begin shopping for them, was when the primary idea Cybertruck was unveiled. It wasn’t till the very finish of 2023 that the primary Cybertrucks rolled precariously out of Tesla’s showrooms.

The Cybertruck is mainly only a massive automobile with a hideous-looking physique, hardly an enormous technological leap. The Cybercab goals to be a state-of-the-art, totally self-driving autonomous car that should bear rigorous security testing earlier than folks go anyplace close to one. The possibilities of that taking place earlier than 2027 are slim to none.